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April 14, 2019
Categories
  • Africa Integrity insights
  • Central Africa
  • North Africa
Tags
  • Africa
  • Algeria
  • protests
  • Sudan

While the removal of long-term dictatorial leaders is undoubtedly a cause for celebration, it seems that protestors and opposition groups in Algeria and Sudan have learned lessons from the the removal of such leaders by the militaries and ruling parties of countries elsewhere on the continent. Unlike in Zimbabwe, where Robert Mugabe’s successor and one-time close ally – military darling Emmerson Mnangagwa – received almost a hero’s welcome from oppositionists, demonstrators in both Algeria and Sudan have maintained pressure on their interim leaders after changes in leadership. 

Protestors in both countries have rejected a simple military takeover and have remained on the streets, calling for genuine democratic reforms prior to any electoral process. It appears that demonstrators in these two countries have learned from mistakes elsewhere and this is especially evident in Sudan, where the phrase “either victory or Egypt” has become a popular slogan. This statement is a reference to the failure of the Arab Spring to bring about genuine long-term reforms in Egypt, where recent constitutional changes have enabled former military general turned President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to extend his presidency until 2030.

It is too early to tell whether the protestors and opposition groups in Algeria and Sudan will be successful, as both the Transitional Military Council (TMC) in Sudan and Algeria’s interim government are determined to protect the status-quo. Although the TMC recently agreed to form a joint-governing body with opposition groups, there is good reason to suspect that this will be used to manipulate demonstrators.

Either way, it appears that African opposition groups have learned from experiences elsewhere on the continent and, therefore, militaries and ruling parties will now be less able to quell demonstrations through simply removing a figurehead. The longevity of such pro-democracy protests is likely to increase across the continent and, if they do not lead to meaningful reforms, widespread and lasting unrest should be expected.

This article originally featured in Africa Integrity’s May 2019 Newsletter. To join our newsletter mailing list, please contact us.

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Africa Integrity Insights

  • Is Africa’s Strong-man Era Reaching its End-game? May 8, 2019
  • Learning the Lessons of Protests  April 14, 2019
  • A Look Ahead to 2019 February 6, 2019
  • A Look Back on 2018 February 6, 2019

Twitter

In light of the fall of #omaralbashir in #Sudan, Abdelaziz #Bouteflika in #Algeria and Robert #Mugabe in #Zimbabwe, is #Africa’s Strongman Era reaching its end-game? https://wp.me/p55Onc-aA

#Sudan opposition regrets military council's suspension of talks https://buff.ly/2EodjFJ

Learning the Lessons of Protests: While the removal of long-term dictatorial leaders is undoubtedly a cause for celebration, it seems that demonstrators in #Algeria and #Sudan have learned lessons from elsewhere on the continent http://wp.me/p55Onc-aI #SudanUprising

As the gulf between #Africa’s ageing Strongmen and their youthful populations grows, it seems that the military is increasingly willing to intervene to protect their interests, at the expense of the figureheads they helped to put in place http://wp.me/p55Onc-aA #Sudan #Algeria

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