Election Year2024 is a big year for elections in Africa, with over a third of the continent’s 54 countries due to hold national votes. The significance of these elections varies from country to country. In some, we will see entrenched ruling parties face their biggest tests, while in others the results are already essentially decided. Elsewhere, the scheduled votes are now in doubt. That said, each election will have an impact and help shape the risk environments of the countries going to the polls. Africa Integrity is well-placed to examine these in detail, but, as an introduction, below are the key points to keep in mind for the upcoming elections this year. Algeria Type: Presidential Neither the governing Front de Libération Nationale (FLN) nor any major opposition parties have appointed candidates for this year’s election, but the 78-year-old President Abdelmajid Tebboune is expected to run again. Tebboune replaced long-time President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in 2019, who was forced out of power by the military in the face of a wave of anti-government protests. The ruling FLN weathered this wave, with the help of Covid-19 restrictions, and, despite promises of reform, little has changed in Algeria. Accordingly, an FLN victory is almost a certainty, although the recent opening of dialogue with opposition groups could present an opportunity for reform. Botswana Type: General The ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has governed Botswana since independence and this year’s election is likely to be its greatest test yet. The opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) has comfortably beaten the BDP in recent by-elections. Furthermore, the UDC looks set to benefit from the rift between President Mokgweetsi Masisi and his predecessor turned opposition party leader Ian Khama and growing allegations of corruption against the president’s family. The BDP will likely remain the largest party but may have to form a coalition to retain power. Burkina Faso Type: Presidential Burkina Faso was due to return the country to civilian rule this year, following a coup in 2022; however, the military junta led by transitional President Ibrahim Traore has ruled out elections in the current security environment. As there is little sign of this improving, it is unlikely that a new election date will be scheduled in the near future. Chad Type: Presidential and National Assembly Mahamat Déby, who seized power in a coup in 2021 following the death of his father and long-time president Idriss Déby, looks set to consolidate his control through elections. Taking a leaf out of his father’s book, Déby appointed a leading opposition figure – Succes Masra – as prime minister in January. This has undermined the opposition movement against his candidacy and direction of the transition, which sparked violent protests in 2022. Ghana Type: Presidential and National Assembly Since the resumption of multi-party democracy in 1992, neither of Ghana’s two main parties – the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) – have held power for more than two terms. As President Nana Akufo-Addo prepares to step down after a tough second term contending with an economic crisis and a slim parliamentary majority, it looks like Ghana will continue to follow this trend. Guinea Type: Presidential and National Assembly According to a timetable agreed with the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), Guinea’s transition back to civilian rule following the coup in 2021 was due to take place this year, but, with the stalling of political dialogue and the lack of progress shown by the transitional government, there is no sign of this happening. President of the Transition Mamadi Doumbouya has refrained from making any commitments on a new electoral timetable but has said that a long-awaited constitutional referendum – a step towards elections – will take place this year. Guinea-Bissau Type: Presidential With a long history of political instability, Guinea-Bissau is on course for another tense election. President Umaro Sissoco Embalo has dissolved parliament twice since taking office in 2019, the second time being in December 2023; six months after an opposition coalition secured a majority in parliament, which blocked his plans to alter the constitution. Embalo said this was in response to a coup attempt; a claim dismissed by his likely rival in November, Domingos Simoes Pereira. Mali Type: Presidential As somewhat expected, Mali’s military junta announced a “slight” postponement of the election in September 2023; one of many delays in the return to civilian rule since the coup in 2020. A new election date is yet to be announced and, with Mali’s exit from Ecowas last month and the regime’s increasingly close ties to Russia, it is unlikely that transitional President Assimi Goïta will be leaving his post soon. Mauritania Type: Presidential and Senate The last presidential election was the first peaceful transfer of power in Mauritania, albeit to the chosen successor of the former president, and progress has been made in opening up the country’s political system under President Mohamed Ould Cheikh Ghazouani. In the restive Sahel region, which has been beset by insurgencies and coups, Mauritania has stood out for its stability; a fact that has strengthened support for Ghazouani and the ruling El Insaf, who are favourites to win after they secured a comfortable victory in last year’s parliamentary election. Mauritius Type: General Since independence, Mauritius’s democratic system has developed two notable characteristics: changing electoral alliances; and the dominance of two political families. All but one prime minister – Paul Bérenger – has belonged to either the Jugnauth or Ramgoolam families, and no single party has ever managed to secure an outright victory in an election. It is unclear what alliances will emerge ahead of the election, but the battle to form a new government will be between the familiar faces of Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth and leader of the opposition Navin Ramgoolam, with Bérenger likely playing a key supporting role. Mozambique Type: Presidential and National Assembly The presidential candidates for Mozambique’s two main parties are not yet confirmed, but the result is all but certain. Frelimo has won every election in Mozambique since their introduction. With each election, allegations of electoral manipulation have grown, and this has even led to dissent within the ruling party. President Filipe Nyusi will stand down ahead of the election and his chosen successor is Carlos Ismael Correia, but this could be challenged at the party’s congress in March by a faction coalescing around the former wife and son of Mozambique’s first president, the late Samora Machel. Namibia Type: Presidential and National Assembly Following the death of outgoing President Hage Geingob this month, the ruling South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO) party will be focused on its re-election. The liberation party will want to reverse the decline in its support in recent years, after losing its two thirds majority in parliament in 2019. Although its position as Namibia’s largest party is unlikely to change, it is hoping that its first female presidential candidate – Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah – will be able to change its fortunes in the face of a tough challenge from Panduleni Itula, a former SWAPO member turned leader of the opposition Independent Patriots for Change (IPC). Rwanda Type: Presidential and National Assembly Since Rwanda held its first multi-party election in 2003, President Paul Kagame and the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) have maintained a tight grip on Rwandan politics and there is no sign of this changing. In the three elections that have taken place, Kagame has secured over 90 percent of the vote. With no viable opposition and an ever-shrinking democratic space, this will almost certainly be repeated in 2024. Senegal Type: Presidential Senegal’s reputation as one of West Africa’s most stable democracies is under threat following the decision to postpone the election by 10 months just three weeks before polling day. Political tensions have been high in recent years, with rumours of an unconstitutional third term for President Macky Sall, prosecutions of opposition leaders and anti-government protests. This decision will only heighten such tensions and increase the likelihood of widespread social unrest. Somaliland Type: Presidential The self-declared and largely unrecognised state of Somaliland is due to hold its presidential election this year, after two years of delays. The delays were criticised by the opposition and sparked violent anti-government protests in 2022, which raised doubts about Somaliland’s reputation for peace and stability. These doubts have largely been assuaged by the scheduling of the election and the implementation of a new electoral law, but the real test will be President Muse Bihi Adbi’s response to the challenge from an opposition alliance, which is currently the largest grouping in parliament. South Africa Type: General Thirty years after the formal end of Apartheid, the ruling ANC is set to face its greatest electoral challenge yet. South Africa’s municipal elections have long been a strong indicator of how parties will perform at the national level and based on the results of the 2021 municipal elections, support for the ANC is on course to drop below 50% for the first time. While it will almost certainly remain the governing party, it may have to rely on alliances with other parties to secure this position. South Sudan Type: Presidential and National Assembly After gaining independence in 2011, elections in South Sudan have been delayed four times, enabling President Salva Kiir to remain in his post. Notably, Kiir has committed himself to holding elections this year, although much still needs to be done to make sure that the long-awaited elections are not delayed for a fifth time. If the elections do take place, Kiir will almost certainly be joined on the ballot by his long-time political and military rival, Vice President Riek Machar. Togo Type: National Assembly A delayed legislative election, which has not been held since a disputed and largely boycotted election in 2018, is due to take place this year, alongside the first ever regional elections in Togo’s history. While some progress has been made in recent consultations between the governing Union pour la République (UNIR) and opposition parties, concerns about the electoral register persist and, therefore, another opposition boycott is possible. Tunisia Type: Presidential In 2019, President Kais Saied was elected as an independent candidate and political outsider. It was hoped that he would be able to bring stability to Tunisia’s divided political system amid a worsening economic crisis. His response has been to declare a state of emergency, dissolve parliament, reverse many of the country’s democratic reforms and blame economic problems on migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa. Against this backdrop, a Saied victory looks almost certain, however, this will likely spark widespread protests.
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