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March 30, 2022
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Africa Integrity Foresight: Russia-Related Reputational Risk in Africa

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened Russia-Related Reputational Risk, as shareholders, governments, media and NGOs pressure companies to sever links with the Russian government and its proxies. The effect of this extends across the globe, including to Africa, which has experienced a notable increase in Russian engagement in recent years.

The UN General Assembly (UNGA) Resolution to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed the complex relationship between Russia and Africa. Through a combination of votes against the resolution, abstentions and non-attendance, 26 of Africa’s 54 nations failed to condemn Russia’s actions. This speaks of a divided continent, perhaps as a result of recent attempts by Russian to broaden its sphere of diplomatic, commercial and military influence into the region. These efforts were symbolised in October 2019 by the convening of the first Africa-Russia Summit in Sochi, attended by 43 heads of state.

These developments, taken together, suggest a significant degree of Russia-Related Reputational Risk for investors in parts of Africa. To enable investors to pinpoint countries in Africa of specific concern, we have developed a broad risk matrix from the perspective of exposure to interests of the Russian state. This is based on four high-level indicators: the UNGA vote; military connections; diplomatic relations; and commercial ties. Readers should note that this is based on open-source analysis and intended only as a jumping-off point for further investigation, which we strongly recommend should be driven by debriefs of human intelligence sources.

To request a copy of the Foresight paper and view this risk matrix, please contact us.

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AFRICA INTEGRITY INSIGHTS

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#SouthSudan: President Salva Kiir makes a second unilateral decision this month regarding the defence ministry - following the removal of Vice President Riek Machar's wife - by appointing an ally to the key ministry, jeopardising the faltering peace agreement made in 2018

Reuters Africa @ReutersAfrica

South Sudan president appoints own defence minister, breaching peace deal https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-sudan-president-appoints-own-defence-minister-breaching-peace-deal-2023-03-30/

#Kenya: Tensions continue to increase in Kenya, as opposition-led protests show little sign of abating, and government supporters have turned to attacking properties owned by political figures, including former President Kenyatta.

BBC News (World) @BBCWorld

Hundreds of protesters storm property of former Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta https://bbc.in/3JRl5Zg

#Russia is seeking to use the Black Sea grain deal to strengthen its position/influence in #Africa. Given the levels of food inflation in Africa and that it only received 17% of shipments from the original deal, this is likely to gain notable traction on the continent

The EastAfrican @The_EastAfrican

Russia laid out conditions on Monday for agreeing to any further extension of the Black Sea grain deal, and President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow could send free grain to African countries if those conditions were not met.
https://bit.ly/3lrkjtW

#Nigeria: A significant result for both #Tinubu and #Obi, ensuring that the president-elect maintains his influence over Lagos, whilst indicating that the Labour Party is struggling to covert Obi's popularity into votes for its governorship candidates #NigerianElections2023

Reuters Africa @ReutersAfrica

The governor of Lagos easily won re-election in low turn-out local voting, a victory for Nigeria's ruling party just weeks after the commercial capital backed the opposition in a disputed presidential election. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/lagos-governor-re-elected-victory-nigeria-ruling-party-2023-03-19/

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